The euro-dollar has spent six weeks in the same range
A still pair is not a calm pair: implied volatility has collapsed, which makes hedging cheap right before the September meetings.
Rafael Ojeda
Macro analyst and head of strategy
Two decades of reading markets from the trading desk and explaining them in public. Every morning he publishes what actually moves portfolios: rates, commodities and the noise worth ignoring.
Their stories
Bitcoin ETFs have been selling for three weeks
The outflow is orderly and looks nothing like panic, yet it breaks the story of the permanent institutional buyer that held the price up all year.
Banks are holding up the Ibex, but no longer on margins
Half-year results confirm the shift: less income from rates, more from fees. That is lower-quality profit, and the market is paying the same for it.
The ECB reaches September with no room for error
Services inflation is still stuck near 3% and the market is already pricing a cut the data does not yet justify. Whoever pays for that expectation today takes the whole risk.
US employment is cooling exactly where it matters
The headline reads strong again, but downward revisions and hours worked tell a different story. The second print always beats the first.